Market Expectations Gap
How much growth is the market pricing in versus what each company has actually delivered? Ranked by the Reverse-DCF expectations gap across our coverage universe.
Data snapshot: August 2026 (generated 2026-08-28)
Modelvix coverage universe: 105 tickers, 73 with Reverse-DCF data
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Most Overexpected — market prices in far more growth than delivered
These are the stocks with the largest positive gap (g_implied − g_actual). The market is implicitly pricing in much higher revenue growth than the company has recently delivered. A large positive gap often coincides with an Expensive zone classification.
| # | Ticker | Gap | g_implied | g_actual | Zone | Price | P50 IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GILD | 496.5% | 500.0% | 3.5% | Expensive | $147.60 | $59.62 |
| 2 | MRK | 491.4% | 500.0% | 8.6% | Expensive | $152.55 | $79.94 |
| 3 | TTWO | 487.3% | 500.0% | 12.7% | Expensive | $240.15 | $131.98 |
| 4 | ASML | 484.4% | 500.0% | 15.6% | Expensive | $1,763.76 | $961.15 |
| 5 | TSLA | 480.2% | 500.0% | 19.8% | Expensive | $345.13 | $198.75 |
| 6 | RIVN | 431.8% | 500.0% | 68.2% | Expensive | $15.73 | $9.16 |
| 7 | KLAC | 387.6% | 400.2% | 12.6% | Expensive | $187.27 | $103.61 |
| 8 | SBUX | 344.1% | 352.9% | 8.8% | Expensive | $107.08 | $64.74 |
| 9 | AMD | 260.8% | 283.2% | 22.4% | Expensive | $466.42 | $279.51 |
| 10 | LRCX | 255.6% | 264.4% | 8.8% | Expensive | $314.00 | $177.40 |
| 11 | JNJ | 229.5% | 232.1% | 2.6% | Expensive | $267.37 | $152.98 |
| 12 | INTC | 186.7% | 179.3% | -7.5% | Expensive | $92.80 | $50.75 |
| 13 | GE | 182.4% | 172.9% | -9.6% | Expensive | $348.37 | $199.88 |
| 14 | AMAT | 165.2% | 174.7% | 9.5% | Expensive | $491.86 | $262.41 |
| 15 | HD | 126.6% | 130.9% | 4.3% | Expensive | $334.49 | $216.42 |
| 16 | UPS | 124.1% | 125.0% | 0.9% | Expensive | $105.14 | $62.61 |
| 17 | CAT | 119.7% | 128.9% | 9.2% | Expensive | $827.90 | $545.23 |
| 18 | V | 118.7% | 130.1% | 11.4% | Expensive | $365.73 | $228.07 |
| 19 | QCOM | 98.3% | 111.5% | 13.3% | Expensive | $160.74 | $117.51 |
| 20 | MCD | 77.9% | 84.5% | 6.5% | Expensive | $270.95 | $167.44 |
Most Underexpected — market prices in less growth than delivered
These are the stocks with the most negative gap. The market is pricing in less growth than the company has actually delivered, which can indicate pessimism relative to recent results.
4 tickers had a negative gap in this snapshot.
Gap = g_implied − g_actual · g_implied: revenue growth implicitly priced in by the market · g_actual: delivered five-year revenue growth · P50 IV: median simulated intrinsic value per share · Price: share price at snapshot time.
Methodology
The expectations gap is defined as gap = g_implied − g_actual. g_implied is the revenue growth rate the market is implicitly pricing in, solved by reverse-engineering the current share price with our DCF + Monte Carlo engine. g_actual is the company's delivered revenue growth, based on recent results and the five-year average. Both figures use the same revenue-growth definition as the Reverse-DCF analysis on every ticker page — no additional calculation is performed on this page; the snapshot values are shown as-is.
g_implied comes from the same simulation pipeline as every Modelvix analysis: WACC is sampled from a normal distribution clipped to plausible bounds, the terminal growth rate is sampled uniformly within a range anchored to long-term GDP-level growth, and 10,000 Monte Carlo trials produce the value distribution from which the implied growth is solved.
Note that the reverse-DCF solver searches for the implied growth rate within a bounded bracket. When the market price implies growth above the upper bound of that bracket, the reported g_implied is clipped to the bound. Such values are bounded outputs, not exact measurements, and must not be interpreted as the precise implied growth rate above the bound.
All figures on this page come from a monthly snapshot. Prices, growth rates, and zones are as of the snapshot date shown above and are not updated in real time. Each ticker's detail page shows the latest cached analysis.
This page covers the Modelvix coverage universe of 105 tickers, of which 73 had complete Reverse-DCF data in this snapshot. 32 tickers could not be analyzed (missing or insufficient financial data) and are excluded from the rankings. This is not S&P 500 or full-market coverage — it is the Modelvix coverage universe only.
Disclaimer
This page is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Rankings are model outputs based on assumptions that may be wrong, and a large gap is not a signal to trade. Always do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance.
Related Resources
Data as of: 2026-08