Market Expectations Gap
How much growth is the market pricing in versus what each company has actually delivered? Ranked by the Reverse-DCF expectations gap across our coverage universe.
Data snapshot: August 2026 (generated 2026-08-28)
Modelvix coverage universe: 105 tickers, 73 with Reverse-DCF data
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Priced for more growth than delivered — 20 of 69 stocks
These are the stocks with the largest positive gap (g_implied − g_actual). The market is implicitly pricing in much higher revenue growth than the company has recently delivered. A large positive gap often coincides with an Expensive zone classification.
| # | Ticker | Gap | g_implied | g_actual | Zone | Price | P50 IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GILD | 496.5% | 500.0%Possible boundary artifactThis value is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot and is the largest g_implied observed here. It may be a boundary artifact; the cause is not established and the server's search bound is not published. | 3.5% | Expensive | $147.60 | $59.62 |
| 2 | MRK | 491.4% | 500.0%Possible boundary artifactThis value is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot and is the largest g_implied observed here. It may be a boundary artifact; the cause is not established and the server's search bound is not published. | 8.6% | Expensive | $152.55 | $79.94 |
| 3 | TTWO | 487.3% | 500.0%Possible boundary artifactThis value is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot and is the largest g_implied observed here. It may be a boundary artifact; the cause is not established and the server's search bound is not published. | 12.7% | Expensive | $240.15 | $131.98 |
| 4 | ASML | 484.4% | 500.0%Possible boundary artifactThis value is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot and is the largest g_implied observed here. It may be a boundary artifact; the cause is not established and the server's search bound is not published. | 15.6% | Expensive | $1,763.76 | $961.15 |
| 5 | TSLA | 480.2% | 500.0%Possible boundary artifactThis value is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot and is the largest g_implied observed here. It may be a boundary artifact; the cause is not established and the server's search bound is not published. | 19.8% | Expensive | $345.13 | $198.75 |
| 6 | RIVN | 431.8% | 500.0%Possible boundary artifactThis value is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot and is the largest g_implied observed here. It may be a boundary artifact; the cause is not established and the server's search bound is not published. | 68.2% | Expensive | $15.73 | $9.16 |
| 7 | KLAC | 387.6% | 400.2% | 12.6% | Expensive | $187.27 | $103.61 |
| 8 | SBUX | 344.1% | 352.9% | 8.8% | Expensive | $107.08 | $64.74 |
| 9 | AMD | 260.8% | 283.2% | 22.4% | Expensive | $466.42 | $279.51 |
| 10 | LRCX | 255.6% | 264.4% | 8.8% | Expensive | $314.00 | $177.40 |
| 11 | JNJ | 229.5% | 232.1% | 2.6% | Expensive | $267.37 | $152.98 |
| 12 | INTC | 186.7% | 179.3% | -7.5% | Expensive | $92.80 | $50.75 |
| 13 | GE | 182.4% | 172.9% | -9.6% | Expensive | $348.37 | $199.88 |
| 14 | AMAT | 165.2% | 174.7% | 9.5% | Expensive | $491.86 | $262.41 |
| 15 | HD | 126.6% | 130.9% | 4.3% | Expensive | $334.49 | $216.42 |
| 16 | UPS | 124.1% | 125.0% | 0.9% | Expensive | $105.14 | $62.61 |
| 17 | CAT | 119.7% | 128.9% | 9.2% | Expensive | $827.90 | $545.23 |
| 18 | V | 118.7% | 130.1% | 11.4% | Expensive | $365.73 | $228.07 |
| 19 | QCOM | 98.3% | 111.5% | 13.3% | Expensive | $160.74 | $117.51 |
| 20 | MCD | 77.9% | 84.5% | 6.5% | Expensive | $270.95 | $167.44 |
g_implied = 5 (500.0%) is shared by 6 tickers in this snapshot of 73 rows, and is the largest g_implied observed in this snapshot. Repeated identical values do not normally occur between unrelated tickers. The cause is not established, and no server limit is published. These rows share g_implied but differ in gap (gap also depends on g_actual), so their ordering here is not a precision ranking.
Priced for less growth than delivered — 4 stocks
These are the stocks with the most negative gap. The market is pricing in less growth than the company has actually delivered, which can indicate pessimism relative to recent results.
Gap = g_implied − g_actual · g_implied: revenue growth implicitly priced in by the market · g_actual: delivered five-year revenue growth · P50 IV: median simulated intrinsic value per share · Price: share price at snapshot time.
Methodology
The expectations gap is defined as gap = g_implied − g_actual. g_implied is the revenue growth rate the market is implicitly pricing in, solved by reverse-engineering the current share price with our DCF + Monte Carlo engine. g_actual is the company's delivered revenue growth, based on recent results and the five-year average. Both figures use the same revenue-growth definition as the Reverse-DCF analysis on every ticker page — no additional calculation is performed on this page; the snapshot values are shown as-is.
g_implied comes from the same simulation pipeline as every Modelvix analysis: WACC is sampled from a normal distribution clipped to plausible bounds, the terminal growth rate is sampled uniformly within a range anchored to long-term GDP-level growth, and 10,000 Monte Carlo trials produce the value distribution from which the implied growth is solved.
The reverse-DCF solver searches for the implied growth rate within a finite bracket, so a reported g_implied may reflect that bracket rather than an exact measurement, and must not be read as the precise implied growth rate beyond it. This page does not publish the bracket's boundaries, and it does not assert a cause for a g_implied value that several tickers share.
All figures on this page come from a monthly snapshot. Prices, growth rates, and zones are as of the snapshot date shown above and are not updated in real time. Each ticker's detail page shows the latest cached analysis.
This page covers the Modelvix coverage universe of 105 tickers, of which 73 had complete Reverse-DCF data in this snapshot. 32 tickers could not be analyzed and are excluded from the rankings: 28 were not found in the data source (HTTP 404), and 4 failed for other reasons (HTTP 500 or similar). This is not S&P 500 or full-market coverage — it is the Modelvix coverage universe only.
Disclaimer
This page is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Rankings are model outputs based on assumptions that may be wrong, and a large gap is not a signal to trade. Always do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance.
Related Resources
Data as of: 2026-08