Adobe Inc · Technology
$245.20
As of: 2026-10-18 07:41:01 (KST)
-2.1%
Expected return
49%
Success probability
-31.0%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Adobe Inc in the Technology industry earns C grade, reflecting a Monte Carlo score of 49 out of 100. The expected return stands at -2.1%, with a 49% probability of positive outcomes. At the current price of $245.20,
These figures are derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and reflect the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.
The Reverse DCF valuation signals "Fair" for this ticker. An implied growth rate of 9.0% (actual: 11.6%) drives the valuation framework. The estimated P50 intrinsic value of $267 provides a benchmark for assessing current pricing.
The Reverse-DCF implied 60% success probability at $251 is a price-conditioned model output — a distinct measure from the overall probability of positive returns — and is reported separately from this "Fair" assessment, which does not itself measure a margin of safety.
Grade C (49) reflects an unfavorable setup. With -2.1% expected return and only 49% probability of gains, the margin of safety appears thin.
Across 10,000 simulated paths, the volatility of 27.4% is moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The median (P50) return stands at -8.4%, and the distribution is roughly symmetric with a slight negative tilt. The spread between the 10th percentile (-31.0%) and the 75th percentile (+13.0%) is +43.9%.
Key risk metrics: VaR(5%) of -31.0%, operating margin of 35.7% (a solid 35.7% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios), and volatility of 27.4%, where volatility represents a moderate risk factor. These three dimensions define the risk landscape at $245.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →