Intel Corp · Semiconductors
$91.67
As of: 2026-09-04 02:37:25 (KST)
-45.4%
Expected return
24%
Success probability
-46.3%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Intel Corp in the Semiconductors industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 12. With an expected return of -45.4% and a 24% chance of positive returns, the stock at $91.67 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 179.3%, compared with the actual growth rate of -7.5%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $51, offering a reference point against the current price. At $93, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $93 stands at 0%.
This C rating (12) suggests caution. The expected return of -45.4% and 24% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 0.7% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -45.5%, with a +1.3% gap between P10 (-46.3%) and P75 (-45.0%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -46.3%. On the operating side, the 9.4% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 0.7%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $92.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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