Marathon Petroleum Corp · Energy
$478.07
As of: 2026-10-18 11:57:43 (KST)
-7.8%
Expected return
47%
Success probability
-38.5%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Marathon Petroleum Corp in the Energy industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 39. With an expected return of -7.8% and a 47% chance of positive returns, the stock at $478.07 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Fair" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 7.0%, compared with the actual growth rate of 12.6%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $417, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $361, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $361 stands at 71%.
This C rating (39) suggests caution. The expected return of -7.8% and 47% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 26.3% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -12.8%, with a +46.3% gap between P10 (-38.5%) and P75 (+7.7%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -38.5%. On the operating side, the 9.1% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 26.3%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $478.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →