Wynn Resorts Ltd · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
$91.28
As of: 2026-09-01 10:12:07 (KST)
-31.3%
Expected return
36%
Success probability
-57.5%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Wynn Resorts Ltd in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 15. With an expected return of -31.3% and a 36% chance of positive returns, the stock at $91.28 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 36.7%, compared with the actual growth rate of 21.7%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $66, offering a reference point against the current price. At $100, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $100 stands at 19%.
This C rating (15) suggests caution. The expected return of -31.3% and 36% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 25.9% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -37.6%, with a +38.1% gap between P10 (-57.5%) and P75 (-19.4%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -57.5%. On the operating side, at 15.7%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 25.9%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $91.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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