Las Vegas Sands Corp · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure

LVS

$43.99

C
Value CreationHigh GrowthHigh Margin

As of: 2026-09-01 16:44:27 (KST)

+0.5%

Expected return

50%

Success probability

-30.5%

Downside risk

For informational purposes only.

Not investment advice.

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Investment Summary

Las Vegas Sands Corp in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 53. With an expected return of +0.5% and a 50% chance of positive returns, the stock at $43.99 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.

Why This Valuation?

The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Fair" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 24.1%, compared with the actual growth rate of 25.7%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $49, offering a reference point against the current price. At $47, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $47 stands at 53%.

Grade Explanation

This C rating (53) suggests caution. The expected return of +0.5% and 50% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.

Monte Carlo Interpretation

The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 27.0% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -4.3%, with a +48.3% gap between P10 (-30.5%) and P75 (+17.8%). the distribution is roughly symmetric with a slight negative tilt

Risk Summary

In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -30.5%. On the operating side, at 21.5%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 27.0%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $44.

What is DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)?

DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.

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What is WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)?

WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.

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What is Terminal Value?

Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.

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What is Reverse DCF?

Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.

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