Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
$15.57
As of: 2026-09-02 23:05:34 (KST)
-6.7%
Expected return
47%
Success probability
-69.5%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 29. With an expected return of -6.7% and a 47% chance of positive returns, the stock at $15.57 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 37.1%, compared with the actual growth rate of 33.5%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $15, offering a reference point against the current price. At $17, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $17 stands at 45%.
This C rating (29) suggests caution. The expected return of -6.7% and 47% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 59.9% — elevated, producing a wide dispersion of possible returns. The P50 sits at -23.2%, with a +100.4% gap between P10 (-69.5%) and P75 (+30.9%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -69.5%. On the operating side, at 13.6%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 59.9%, elevated volatility warrants close attention at the current price of $16.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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