Teleflex Inc · Health Care

TFX

$140.97

C
Low Volatility

As of: 2026-09-03 01:42:38 (KST)

-55.3%

Expected return

20%

Success probability

-57.8%

Downside risk

For informational purposes only.

Not investment advice.

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Investment Summary

Teleflex Inc in the Health Care industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 8. With an expected return of -55.3% and a 20% chance of positive returns, the stock at $140.97 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.

Why This Valuation?

The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 116.7%, compared with the actual growth rate of -4.7%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $60, offering a reference point against the current price. At $135, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $135 stands at 0%.

Grade Explanation

This C rating (8) suggests caution. The expected return of -55.3% and 20% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.

Monte Carlo Interpretation

The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 2.1% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -55.5%, with a +3.7% gap between P10 (-57.8%) and P75 (-54.1%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones

Risk Summary

In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -57.8%. On the operating side, the -11.7% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 2.1%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $141.

What is DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)?

DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.

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What is WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)?

WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.

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What is Terminal Value?

Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.

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What is Reverse DCF?

Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.

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