Inspire Medical Systems Inc · Health Care
$71.34
As of: 2026-10-21 00:03:40 (KST)
-23.0%
Expected return
38%
Success probability
-37.9%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Inspire Medical Systems Inc in the Health Care industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 24. With an expected return of -23.0% and a 38% chance of positive returns, the stock at $71.34 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 49.7%, compared with the actual growth rate of 33.9%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $50, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $62, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $62 stands at 28%.
This C rating (24) suggests caution. The expected return of -23.0% and 38% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 15.3% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -27.6%, with a +22.4% gap between P10 (-37.9%) and P75 (-15.4%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -37.9%. On the operating side, the 6.0% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 15.3%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $71.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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