Monolithic Power Systems Inc · Semiconductors
$1,253.66
As of: 2026-10-20 12:19:39 (KST)
-40.2%
Expected return
27%
Success probability
-42.8%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Monolithic Power Systems Inc in the Semiconductors industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 15. With an expected return of -40.2% and a 27% chance of positive returns, the stock at $1253.66 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios and summarizes the potential return range through P10, P25, P50, and P75 percentiles and the probability of a positive return.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 102.5%, compared with the actual growth rate of 21.3%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $724, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $1.2K, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $1.2K stands at 0%.
This C rating (15) suggests caution. The expected return of -40.2% and 27% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo percentile summary shows a volatility of 2.4% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -40.8%, with a +3.8% gap between P10 (-42.8%) and P75 (-39.0%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -42.8%. On the operating side, a solid 28.7% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios. With a volatility of 2.4%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $1.3K.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze 10,000 scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →