First Solar Inc · Semiconductors
$199.65
As of: 2026-09-01 23:56:31 (KST)
-27.9%
Expected return
34%
Success probability
-36.1%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
First Solar Inc in the Semiconductors industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 22. With an expected return of -27.9% and a 34% chance of positive returns, the stock at $199.65 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 24.1%, compared with the actual growth rate of 12.3%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $154, offering a reference point against the current price. At $214, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $214 stands at 12%.
This C rating (22) suggests caution. The expected return of -27.9% and 34% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 7.7% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -29.4%, with a +12.0% gap between P10 (-36.1%) and P75 (-24.1%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -36.1%. On the operating side, a solid 33.6% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios. With a volatility of 7.7%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $200.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →