NXP Semiconductors NV · Semiconductors
$277.29
simulation.as_of 2026-07-24 11:54:22 (KST)
-44.9%
simulation.expected_return
25%
simulation.success_probability
-48.0%
simulation.downside_risk
simulation.disclaimer
simulation.disclaimer_investment
NXP Semiconductors NV in the Semiconductors industry earns C grade, reflecting a Monte Carlo score of 12 out of 100. The expected return stands at -44.9%, with a 25% probability of positive outcomes. At the current price of $277.29, These figures are derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and reflect the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.
The Reverse DCF valuation signals "Expensive" for this ticker. An implied growth rate of 45.1% (actual: 6.8%) drives the valuation framework. The estimated P50 intrinsic value of $153 provides a benchmark for assessing current pricing. The 0% success probability at $277 quantifies the margin of safety implied by this "Expensive" assessment.
Grade C (12) reflects an unfavorable setup. With -44.9% expected return and only 25% probability of gains, the margin of safety appears thin.
Across 10,000 simulated paths, the volatility of 2.4% is relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The median (P50) return stands at -45.1%, and a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones. The spread between the 10th percentile (-48.0%) and the 75th percentile (-43.5%) is +4.4%.
Key risk metrics: VaR(5%) of -48.0%, operating margin of 30.3% (a solid 30.3% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios), and volatility of 2.4%, where volatility risk is low. These three dimensions define the risk landscape at $277.
simulation.related.reason