Cisco Systems Inc · Communications
$109.46
As of: 2026-09-03 03:37:36 (KST)
-45.5%
Expected return
24%
Success probability
-47.4%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Cisco Systems Inc in the Communications industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 12. With an expected return of -45.5% and a 24% chance of positive returns, the stock at $109.45 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 55.4%, compared with the actual growth rate of 2.7%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $60, offering a reference point against the current price. At $110, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $110 stands at 0%.
This C rating (12) suggests caution. The expected return of -45.5% and 24% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 1.7% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -45.7%, with a +3.0% gap between P10 (-47.4%) and P75 (-44.4%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -47.4%. On the operating side, at 23.4%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 1.7%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $109.
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DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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