Booking Holdings Inc · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
$205.63
As of: 2026-08-31 07:08:51 (KST)
-6.0%
Expected return
47%
Success probability
-31.9%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Booking Holdings Inc in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 44. With an expected return of -6.0% and a 47% chance of positive returns, the stock at $205.63 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Fair" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 24.7%, compared with the actual growth rate of 24.1%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $208, offering a reference point against the current price. At $210, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $210 stands at 49%.
This C rating (44) suggests caution. The expected return of -6.0% and 47% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 26.0% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -12.8%, with a +39.0% gap between P10 (-31.9%) and P75 (+7.1%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -31.9%. On the operating side, a solid 32.9% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios. With a volatility of 26.0%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $206.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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