V2X Inc · Aerospace & Defense
$77.47
As of: 2026-08-26 15:06:04 (KST)
-11.3%
Expected return
45%
Success probability
-45.4%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
V2X Inc in the Aerospace & Defense industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 30. With an expected return of -11.3% and a 45% chance of positive returns, the stock at $77.47 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 27.4%, compared with the actual growth rate of 20.8%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $68, offering a reference point against the current price. At $79, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $79 stands at 35%.
This C rating (30) suggests caution. The expected return of -11.3% and 45% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 35.1% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -23.1%, with a +55.9% gap between P10 (-45.4%) and P75 (+10.5%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -45.4%. On the operating side, the 4.2% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 35.1%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $77.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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