Ulta Beauty Inc · Retail
$537.10
As of: 2026-09-01 07:06:41 (KST)
+40.5%
Expected return
62%
Success probability
-28.1%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Ulta Beauty Inc in the Retail industry earns A grade, reflecting a Monte Carlo score of 73 out of 100. The expected return stands at +40.5%, with a 62% probability of positive outcomes. At the current price of $537.10, These figures are derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and reflect the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.
The Reverse DCF valuation signals "Strong Buy" for this ticker. An implied growth rate of -21.8% (actual: 13.1%) drives the valuation framework. The estimated P50 intrinsic value of $879 provides a benchmark for assessing current pricing. The Reverse-DCF implied 100% success probability at $521 quantifies the margin of safety implied by this "Strong Buy" assessment.
Grade A (score 73) signals compelling risk-reward dynamics. An expected return of +40.5% and a 62% probability of positive returns underscore the favorable setup.
Across 10,000 simulated paths, the volatility of 63.3% is elevated, producing a wide dispersion of possible returns. The median (P50) return stands at +30.7%, and the distribution skews positive, indicating upside potential outweighs downside risk. The spread between the 10th percentile (-28.1%) and the 75th percentile (+67.4%) is +95.5%.
Key risk metrics: VaR(5%) of -28.1%, operating margin of 12.4% (at 12.4%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure), and volatility of 63.3%, where elevated volatility warrants close attention. These three dimensions define the risk landscape at $537.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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