United Community Banks Inc · Banking
$34.84
As of: 2026-09-01 04:38:51 (KST)
-28.5%
Expected return
35%
Success probability
-38.8%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
United Community Banks Inc in the Banking industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 21. With an expected return of -28.5% and a 35% chance of positive returns, the stock at $34.84 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 27.4%, compared with the actual growth rate of 15.2%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $25, offering a reference point against the current price. At $36, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $36 stands at 16%.
This C rating (21) suggests caution. The expected return of -28.5% and 35% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 9.7% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -30.4%, with a +15.3% gap between P10 (-38.8%) and P75 (-23.5%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -38.8%. On the operating side, a solid 39.7% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios. With a volatility of 9.7%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $35.
Same industry
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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