Transmedics Group Inc · Health Care
$84.29
As of: 2026-09-03 01:42:29 (KST)
-18.8%
Expected return
41%
Success probability
-40.3%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Transmedics Group Inc in the Health Care industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 27. With an expected return of -18.8% and a 41% chance of positive returns, the stock at $84.29 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 61.9%, compared with the actual growth rate of 46.9%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $75, offering a reference point against the current price. At $91, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $91 stands at 34%.
This C rating (27) suggests caution. The expected return of -18.8% and 41% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 21.2% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -23.8%, with a +31.4% gap between P10 (-40.3%) and P75 (-8.9%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -40.3%. On the operating side, at 12.2%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 21.2%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $84.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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