Shopify Inc · Technology
$145.09
As of: 2026-09-05 09:51:47 (KST)
-41.8%
Expected return
26%
Success probability
-43.3%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Shopify Inc in the Technology industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 14. With an expected return of -41.8% and a 26% chance of positive returns, the stock at $145.09 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 227.2%, compared with the actual growth rate of 24.0%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $87, offering a reference point against the current price. At $145, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $145 stands at 0%.
This C rating (14) suggests caution. The expected return of -41.8% and 26% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 1.2% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -41.9%, with a +2.3% gap between P10 (-43.3%) and P75 (-41.0%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -43.3%. On the operating side, at 13.9%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 1.2%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $145.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →