Shopify Inc · Technology
$173.48
As of: 2026-10-21 06:17:50 (KST)
-39.1%
Expected return
28%
Success probability
-42.2%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Shopify Inc in the Technology industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 15. With an expected return of -39.1% and a 28% chance of positive returns, the stock at $173.48 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios and summarizes the potential return range through P10, P25, P50, and P75 percentiles and the probability of a positive return.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 227.2%, compared with the actual growth rate of 24.0%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $87, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $145, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $145 stands at 0%.
This C rating (15) suggests caution. The expected return of -39.1% and 28% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo percentile summary shows a volatility of 2.7% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -39.5%, with a +4.5% gap between P10 (-42.2%) and P75 (-37.7%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -42.2%. On the operating side, at 13.9%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 2.7%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $173.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze 10,000 scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →