ORCL

Investment Summary

Oracle Corp in the Technology industry earns C grade, reflecting a Monte Carlo score of 18 out of 100. The expected return stands at -26.9%, with a 38% probability of positive outcomes. At the current price of $128.23,

These figures are derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and reflect the inherent uncertainty in financial markets.

Why This Valuation?

The Reverse DCF valuation signals "Expensive" for this ticker. An implied growth rate of 21.6% (actual: 9.7%) drives the valuation framework. The estimated P50 intrinsic value of $102 provides a benchmark for assessing current pricing.

The Reverse-DCF implied 12% success probability at $137 is a price-conditioned model output — a distinct measure from the overall probability of positive returns — and is reported separately from this "Expensive" assessment, which does not itself measure a margin of safety.

Grade Explanation

Grade C (18) reflects an unfavorable setup. With -26.9% expected return and only 38% probability of gains, the margin of safety appears thin.

Monte Carlo Interpretation

Across 10,000 simulated paths, the volatility of 26.6% is moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The median (P50) return stands at -34.5%, and a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones. The spread between the 10th percentile (-50.7%) and the 75th percentile (-18.1%) is +32.6%.

Risk Summary

Key risk metrics: VaR(5%) of -50.7%, operating margin of 32.1% (a solid 32.1% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios), and volatility of 26.6%, where volatility represents a moderate risk factor. These three dimensions define the risk landscape at $128.