Organon & Co · Pharmaceuticals
$13.77
As of: 2026-09-03 23:50:51 (KST)
-106.8%
Expected return
14%
Success probability
-139.0%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Our analysis assigns C grade to Organon & Co in the Pharmaceuticals industry, based on a Monte Carlo composite score of 4. An expected return of -106.8% paired with a 14% likelihood of gains suggests a favorable risk-reward profile at $13.77. The estimates come from a 10,000-run Monte Carlo model, accounting for the full range of possible outcomes embedded in current market data.
According to the Reverse DCF model, the stock falls into the "Expensive" category. With a market-implied growth rate of 402.1% versus an actual rate of -1.0%, the gap of 403.1% between implied and actual growth is a key input for valuation. The P50 intrinsic value is estimated at $-2. With a Reverse-DCF implied success probability of 0% at $14, this expensive rating helps frame the opportunity.
The C grade signals below-average investment characteristics. A Monte Carlo score of 4, expected return of -106.8%, and 14% positive probability indicate patience may be warranted before entering a position.
From 10,000 scenarios: volatility measures 34.6%, which is moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. With a P50 of -115.1%, the range from P10 (-139.0%) to P75 (-91.4%) spans +47.6%. a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
From a risk perspective, the 5th percentile downside stands at -139.0%. Combined with an operating margin of 8.0% (the 8.0% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines), the volatility reading of 34.6% — volatility represents a moderate risk factor — frames the overall risk profile at $14.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →