Lowe's Companies Inc · Retail
$197.38
As of: 2026-10-18 00:59:42 (KST)
-38.8%
Expected return
32%
Success probability
-58.3%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Lowe's Companies Inc in the Retail industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 12. With an expected return of -38.8% and a 32% chance of positive returns, the stock at $197.38 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 8.0%, compared with the actual growth rate of -0.8%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $137, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $189, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $189 stands at 19%.
This C rating (12) suggests caution. The expected return of -38.8% and 32% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 21.7% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -44.6%, with a +27.2% gap between P10 (-58.3%) and P75 (-31.1%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -58.3%. On the operating side, at 11.4%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 21.7%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $197.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →