IDEXX Laboratories Inc · Health Care

IDXX

$554.99

C
Value CreationHigh MarginAsset Light

As of: 2026-08-30 20:19:03 (KST)

-39.0%

Expected return

29%

Success probability

-47.8%

Downside risk

For informational purposes only.

Not investment advice.

Was this analysis helpful?

Investment Summary

IDEXX Laboratories Inc in the Health Care industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 13. With an expected return of -39.0% and a 29% chance of positive returns, the stock at $554.99 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.

Why This Valuation?

The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 155.4%, compared with the actual growth rate of 8.9%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $336, offering a reference point against the current price. At $539, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $539 stands at 0%.

Grade Explanation

This C rating (13) suggests caution. The expected return of -39.0% and 29% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.

Monte Carlo Interpretation

The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 9.4% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -41.1%, with a +12.5% gap between P10 (-47.8%) and P75 (-35.3%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones

Risk Summary

In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -47.8%. On the operating side, a solid 32.0% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios. With a volatility of 9.4%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $555.

What is DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)?

DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.

Learn more →

What is WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)?

WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.

Learn more →

What is Terminal Value?

Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.

Learn more →

What is Reverse DCF?

Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.

Learn more →

Learn More Resources