Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc · Pharmaceuticals
$39.38
As of: 2026-09-01 07:22:00 (KST)
+21.4%
Expected return
60%
Success probability
-8.0%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc in the Pharmaceuticals industry carries A grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 81. With an expected return of +21.4% and a 60% chance of positive returns, the stock at $39.38 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Fair" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 16.0%, compared with the actual growth rate of 28.7%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $49, offering a reference point against the current price. At $38, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $38 stands at 71%.
This A rating (81) is driven by the convergence of a +21.4% expected return and a 60% chance of gains — a combination that distinguishes it within our framework.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 24.8% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at +18.6%, with a +43.3% gap between P10 (-8.0%) and P75 (+35.2%). the distribution skews positive, indicating upside potential outweighs downside risk
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -8.0%. On the operating side, at 24.0%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 24.8%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $39.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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