EVgo Inc · Retail
$1.07
As of: 2026-10-18 13:02:45 (KST)
-29.2%
Expected return
37%
Success probability
-51.1%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
EVgo Inc in the Retail industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 17. With an expected return of -29.2% and a 37% chance of positive returns, the stock at $1.07 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 500.0%, compared with the actual growth rate of 48.0%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $1, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $1, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $1 stands at 0%.
This C rating (17) suggests caution. The expected return of -29.2% and 37% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 27.6% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -40.2%, with a +29.2% gap between P10 (-51.1%) and P75 (-21.9%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -51.1%. On the operating side, the -30.5% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 27.6%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $1.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →