Boeing Co · Aerospace & Defense
$190.21
As of: 2026-10-18 21:29:10 (KST)
-51.9%
Expected return
21%
Success probability
-53.0%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
Boeing Co in the Aerospace & Defense industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 9. With an expected return of -51.9% and a 21% chance of positive returns, the stock at $190.21 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 76.9%, compared with the actual growth rate of 8.1%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $115, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $222, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $222 stands at 0%.
This C rating (9) suggests caution. The expected return of -51.9% and 21% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 1.0% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -52.1%, with a +1.5% gap between P10 (-53.0%) and P75 (-51.4%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -53.0%. On the operating side, the 4.9% operating margin provides a thin buffer against revenue declines. With a volatility of 1.0%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $190.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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