American Express Co · Financial Services
$313.59
As of: 2026-10-19 12:55:33 (KST)
-44.0%
Expected return
31%
Success probability
-72.7%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
American Express Co in the Financial Services industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 11. With an expected return of -44.0% and a 31% chance of positive returns, the stock at $313.59 presents
This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios and summarizes the potential return range through P10, P25, P50, and P75 percentiles and the probability of a positive return.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 131.5%, compared with the actual growth rate of 13.8%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $194, offering a reference point against the current price.
At $324, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $324 stands at 0%.
This C rating (11) suggests caution. The expected return of -44.0% and 31% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo percentile summary shows a volatility of 31.3% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -52.5%, with a +39.3% gap between P10 (-72.7%) and P75 (-33.4%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -72.7%. On the operating side, at 18.2%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 31.3%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $314.
Data: Finnhub
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze 10,000 scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
Learn more →