ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc · Pharmaceuticals
$72.85
As of: 2026-08-31 13:59:59 (KST)
+1.4%
Expected return
51%
Success probability
-28.7%
Downside risk
For informational purposes only.
Not investment advice.
ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc in the Pharmaceuticals industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 56. With an expected return of +1.4% and a 51% chance of positive returns, the stock at $72.85 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Fair" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 21.2%, compared with the actual growth rate of 25.1%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $82, offering a reference point against the current price. At $75, the Reverse-DCF implied probability of finishing above $75 stands at 58%.
This C rating (56) suggests caution. The expected return of +1.4% and 51% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 25.5% — moderate — within the typical range for an individual equity. The P50 sits at -1.9%, with a +46.2% gap between P10 (-28.7%) and P75 (+17.4%). the distribution is roughly symmetric with a slight negative tilt
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -28.7%. On the operating side, at 13.4%, operating margins are adequate but could compress under competitive pressure. With a volatility of 25.5%, volatility represents a moderate risk factor at the current price of $73.
DCF estimates a company's intrinsic value by discounting its future cash flows to present value. Modelvix uses Monte Carlo simulation to analyze thousands of scenarios.
Learn more →WACC is the average rate a company pays to finance its assets, used as the discount rate in DCF analysis. Modelvix simulates how WACC changes affect valuation.
Learn more →Terminal value represents the perpetual value of a business beyond the forecast period, often comprising the majority of DCF value. Modelvix analyzes terminal value uncertainty across growth scenarios.
Learn more →Reverse DCF works backward from the current stock price to infer the growth rate the market expects, helping you assess whether a stock is fairly valued. Modelvix shows what growth assumptions the current price implies.
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