Analog Devices Inc · Semiconductors
$375.79
simulation.as_of 2026-07-24 13:47:25 (KST)
-42.1%
simulation.expected_return
26%
simulation.success_probability
-44.1%
simulation.downside_risk
simulation.disclaimer
simulation.disclaimer_investment
Analog Devices Inc in the Semiconductors industry carries C grade, driven by a Monte Carlo rating of 14. With an expected return of -42.1% and a 26% chance of positive returns, the stock at $375.79 presents This assessment is based on 10,000 probabilistic scenarios, offering a robust view of the potential return distribution across varying market conditions.
The Reverse DCF analysis places this stock in the "Expensive" zone. The implied growth rate (g_implied) of 64.9%, compared with the actual growth rate of 12.7%, reveals the market's pricing assumptions. The P50 intrinsic value sits at $221, offering a reference point against the current price. At $377, the estimated probability of successful investment stands at 0%.
This C rating (14) suggests caution. The expected return of -42.1% and 26% success probability are below our threshold for an attractive entry.
The Monte Carlo distribution reveals a volatility of 1.7% — relatively low, meaning the simulated outcomes cluster tightly around the median. The P50 sits at -42.3%, with a +3.0% gap between P10 (-44.1%) and P75 (-41.1%). a negative skew suggests downside scenarios are more pronounced than upside ones
In the worst 5% of scenarios, the 5th percentile value-at-risk is -44.1%. On the operating side, a solid 32.5% operating margin helps cushion downside scenarios. With a volatility of 1.7%, volatility risk is low at the current price of $376.
simulation.related.reason